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Caribbean Stud Poker | Strategy

If you ask most players if they're good at Caribbean Stud, most answer with a nod and an emphatic, "Of course! They are fun and very easy to play. Unfortunately, however, any game is easy to play. Playing, however, is very different from winning. To win, you have to play correctly, using the proper strategy and money management techniques that professionals have been preaching for decades. Those principles are no different if you play a difficult game like blackjack, or the more "straightforward" games like Caribbean Stud. But unlike blackjack (which most players realize is difficult) Caribbean Stud's apparent simplicity makes players an easy target for the casino.

Let's take a quick little test and see how well you know the strategy for Caribbean Stud.

Which of the following hands would you never make the call bet on in Caribbean Stud Poker?

1. Player has A-K-10-4-2 (unsuited) with the dealer exposing an ace.
2. Player has Q-J-7-2-2 with the dealer exposing a 10.
3. Player has K-10-8-8-5 with the dealer exposing an 8.

If you answered number one, congratulations -you're wrong, and you're one of the majority of players who thinks that just because a game looks easy, it must be. The truth is, each of these hands is of sufficient strength to warrant play. And while you may have known that you must play any pair, you lack the strategic knowledge necessary to fully compete at this game, and in the not-so-long run that fact will ruin your bankroll.

Compared to other games, Caribbean Stud is tough for the simple fact that casinos have a relatively high edge: 5.26% on the ante bets, which reduces to about 2.5% when the call bets are taken into account. Of course these figures go right out the window unless the correct strategy is followed.

Before we get into the strategy for the games, let's take a look at some of the most common, and costly, the average Caribbean Stud player makes.

Common Mistakes

Folding on all pairs under 5

Since the call bet is twice the amount of the ante, some players refuse to play low pairs. Too risky, they say. Statistically, however, 44% of all hands will not even contain a qualifying set; no pair, no ace-king, nothing. Another 6.08% of the time, the dealer will be holding an ace-king-x-x-x, (where x represents unpaired, non-suited, non-sequential cards.). The result: even the weakest pair will beat the dealer 50.08% of the time.

Calling on an ace-king, but folding on a pair of twos

This method of playing is based on the misguided notion that if they player doesn't have a pair, then neither does the dealer. Flat out, it's a bad move. As I've already shown a pair of twos will beat the dealer 50.08% of the time, while ace-king hands will fall within the range of 44% to 50.08%, depending on the strength of the remaining cards in the hand.

Playing Ace-Queen-X-X-X hands

Inexperienced players call on this hand because under the right circumstances it can look powerful. For example, the hand A-Q-J-10-9, (unsuited) looks strong, but is in reality worthless. Since the only way this hand can win is for the dealer to have nothing, there is no good reason why this play should ever be made.

Betting all hands

Some players routinely "bluff" the dealer, regardless of the strength of their hand. Since the dealer will have a qualifying hand 56% of the time, even a large bankroll cannot withstand the constant draw.

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Now that you know what not to do, it's time to see exactly what you must do to get the edge down to the lowest amount. The following table lists the rules for making the call bet.

Basic Playing Strategy

Table 1: Call Bet Strategy

Hand	Dealer's Card	Call Bet
8's-A's	Any	Yes
7's	7,6,5,4,3,2	Yes
6's	6,5,4,3,2	Yes
5's	5,4,3,2	Yes
4's	Any	Yes
3's	Any	Yes
2's	Any	Yes
A-K-Q-J-X	Any	Yes
A-K-Q-X-X	A,K,Q,X,X	Dependent
A-K-Q-J-X	A,K,J,X,X	Dependent
A-K-Q-J-X	A,K,10,X,X	Dependent

X represents any unpaired, non-sequential, non-suited cards.

From this table you can see that a pair of 8's or higher has a statistical expectation for winning regardless of the dealer's exposed card. With 5's, 6's or 7's, however, the strength of the hand is directly related to that card. Since the dealer has a greater chance for exposing one of his paired cards (40% of the hand makes up the pair) players have a greater chance of winning when the dealer exposes a card of equal or lesser value then their pair. However, despite the dealer's card, you must still make the call bet on any pair.

Hands like A-K-Q-X-X, A-K-J-X-X, and A-K-10-X-X, are the weakest playable hands, with a very low win expectation. For these hands, the call bet is made only when the dealer's exposed card matches any card in your hand. Any other hand that you are dealt is considered garbage and should be folded.

You're now set with the optimal strategy for making the call bets Caribbean Stud poker. As you can see there aren't as many rules as there are with games like blackjack, but there are important rules nonetheless. Knowing them will help reduce the edge down to it's lowest attainable value and help you to start walking away with a profit, instead of just taking longer to lose.

Progresive Jackpot

Some of the biggest jackpots ever won have been from Caribbean Stud Poker progressive jackpots. Players can easily win at least portions of the pot, and earn a steady and substantial profit. Because the action is so fast, the pot builds quick...And a lucky winner on the entire jackpot will surely obtain a huge bankroll. Here's how it works:
When a player makes the required initial ante before the start of a game, they have the option of entering one of five progressive jackpots. The player does this by placing a second wager in the designated progressive jackpot. The player can place an optional bet for the Progressive Jackpot at the same time he/she places the ante bet. If the player is dealt one of the five highest ranked poker hands (listed below), they will receive a payout on the jackpot, corresponding to the particular payout percentage. If more than one player has won the same progressive jackpot, which is available to all players during a designated gambling session, the pot will be split equally. Even if the dealer has a better ranked hand than a player who draws one of the hands listed below for a progressive jackpot, the player will still win the corresponding portion of the progressive jackpot.

The Odds

The house has a 5.2% edge over you, which is about as bad as it gets at a casino!
The house edge on a progressive bet (a common online option) is around 22% or more. So beware!

In general, though, remember that the dealer will only qualify 56% of the time, so that 46% of the time you'll only get paid for your ante bet. So beware!

Progressive Jackpot Payouts

-Royal Flush: 100% of the jackpot
-Straight Flush: 10% of the jackpot
-Four Of A Kind: $100 from the jackpot
-Full House: $75 from the jackpot
-Flush: $50 from the jackpot

Strategies

The core assumption is that you will lose money in Caribbean Poker. So the best strategy is to minimize your losses! The basic strategy is to raise on Ace-King-Jack-8-3 or better, and surrender otherwise. That is the "beacon hand", and it is the lowest break-even hand in the game. The dealer must qualify in order for you to get payoffs, and this rarely happens in Caribbean Poker. With all this in mind, if you enjoy losing for the occasional great payoff.